Published in Counter Arts·PinnedMindset EconomicsHow to incorporate fixed and growth mindsets into economic theory — Introduction Standford psychologist Carol Dweck popularized a theory she calls the “growth mindset” that she argues accounts for many, if not most, people’s success. In short, believing you are capable of growing as a person or improving in your skills becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts. My goal here is…Economics9 min read
Published in DataDrivenInvestor·PinnedIntroduction to Ergodic Economics in Python with a Coin TossThis post was inspired by Ergodicity Economics. Suppose your wealth was subject to a coin toss- if heads, your wealth increases by 50%, if tails, your wealth decreases by 40%. Would you play this game? How would you go about figuring out if this game was worth it?Economics4 min read
PinnedThe Problem of Evil, The Simulation Hypothesis, and The AI Control ProblemToday, I am announcing that I will be working on a book, The Problem of Evil, The Simulation Hypothesis, and The AI Control Problem. I expect this to take ~2 years, so I will be writing somewhat less on Medium to spend more time on this book. In some sense…Economics2 min read
Published in DataDrivenInvestor·PinnedThe Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle Applied to Stock PricesYou cannot “know” the market price without first affecting it — The Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that you cannot know both a particle’s position and momentum at the same time. This is not simply due to measurement error; it is a fundamental law of physics due to the fact that the very act of measurement affects the particle’s position or momentum. …Finance7 min read
Published in DataDrivenInvestor·PinnedBeyond Behavioral EconomicsHow replacing utility with brain states may lead to the economic theory of everything — Homo Economicus and Beyond Since the dawn of time, humankind hath sought to explain action with scientific accuracy. As Aristotle would content, action need not involve human volition: rocks, cars, and bombs can act. (See Cornell Graduate and MIT postdoc Nathanial Baron-Schmitt defend thing/agent causation here.)Economics11 min read
3 hours agoMacroeconomics and PoliticsIn 2008, many economists were left scratching their heads. How was it possible that macroeconomic models hadn’t factored in the financial sector? The surface level critique was that neoclassical economists assumed that the financial sector was frictionless, supply and demand in efficient financial markets having no impact on the “real”…Economics5 min read
8 hours agoMarket Relocation in ProgressOn January 4th, 2022, the S&P 500 peaked just over 4800. Back then, the VIX sat under 18. Bitcoin was trading above $45k, while crude oil was trading at ~$80/barrel. 1 US Dollar ($) was worth 115 Japanese Yen (¥). The 10 year US Treasury traded around 1.6%. As of…Economics2 min read
Published in Counter Arts·May 19Tesla Removed from ESG IndexMay 18 (Reuters) — An S&P Dow Jones Indices executive told Reuters on Wednesday it has removed electric carmaker Tesla Inc from the widely followed S&P 500 ESG Index because of issues including claims of racial discrimination and crashes linked to its autopilot vehicles —Reuters If the average American were…Economics3 min read
Published in DataDrivenInvestor·May 11I am The Operator. The Entry Point for Financial MarketsCome lose money with me on my NEW day trading substack! — The Moral Economist? That’s just a persona. Another of mine. The Operator. The Entry Point for Financial Markets. Welcome to the Upside Down. I’m going back to my day trading roots. My goal is to solve financial markets. For everyone. Well, those who are willing to pay $10/month on my…Economics1 min read
May 4AI and The NP ConjectureThe P versus NP problem is a major unsolved problem in computer science. It asks whether every problem whose solution can be quickly verified can also be solved quickly. … An answer to the P versus NP question would determine whether problems that can be verified in polynomial time can also be…Artificial Intelligence3 min read
